FiRe Last Chance 2026 · BO3
result vs predictionHHacha#210 in the world · loss 0:2
series probability
15%85%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Wildcard#47 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
InfernoHacha ban
33%47%
Hacha · 2 mapsedge Wildcard +14%Wildcard · 13 maps
MirageWildcard ban
67%38%
Hacha · 2 mapsedge Hacha +29%Wildcard · 12 maps
NukeWildcard pick
57%64%
Hacha · 3 mapsedge Wildcard +7%Wildcard · 10 maps
Dust2Hacha pick
57%57%
Hacha · 3 mapsnearly even +0%Wildcard · 3 maps
CacheHacha ban
50%56%
Hacha · 0 mapsedge Wildcard +6%Wildcard · 5 maps
Defaultpossible decider
33%60%
Hacha · 2 mapsedge Wildcard +27%Wildcard · 1 map
AncientWildcard ban
67%50%
Hacha · 2 mapsedge Hacha +17%Wildcard · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanHacha remove Inferno
2. BanWildcard remove Ancient
3. PickHacha take Dust2
4. PickWildcard take Nuke
5. BanWildcard remove Mirage
6. BanHacha remove Cache
DeciderDefault (33% / 60%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction missed3:13
Hacha 79%Wildcard 21%
The model gave 79% on Hacha — the map was taken by Wildcard.
Infernoprediction correct4:13
Hacha 33%Wildcard 67%
The model gave 67% on Wildcard — the map was taken by Wildcard.
Model check result
Model favoriteWildcard · 85%
Series resultWildcard 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2