Parken Challenger Championship Season 6 · BO3
result vs prediction
HAFOloss 0:2series probability
46%54%
probability at match start · final 0:2
MTX#359 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
NukeHAFO ban
50%43%
HAFO · 0 mapsedge HAFO +7%MTX · 3 maps
AncientMTX ban
40%40%
HAFO · 1 mapnearly even +0%MTX · 1 map
MirageMTX pick
40%40%
HAFO · 1 mapnearly even +0%MTX · 1 map
Dust2HAFO pick
50%40%
HAFO · 0 mapsedge HAFO +10%MTX · 1 map
InfernoMTX ban
50%40%
HAFO · 0 mapsedge HAFO +10%MTX · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanHAFO remove Nuke
2. BanMTX remove Ancient
3. PickHAFO take Dust2
4. PickMTX take Mirage
5. BanMTX remove Inferno
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction missed1:13
HAFO 57%MTX 43%
The model gave 57% on HAFO — the map was taken by MTX.
Ancientprediction missed4:13
HAFO 53%MTX 47%
The model gave 53% on HAFO — the map was taken by MTX.
Model check result
Model favoriteMTX · 54%
Series resultMTX 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map0 of 2