Tipsport Open Cup 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
HAVU#107 in the world · win 2:0series probability
66%34%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Four Magic#181 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
NukeHAVU pick
72%50%
HAVU · 14 mapsedge HAVU +22%Four Magic · 0 maps
MirageFour Magic ban
54%50%
HAVU · 9 mapsnearly even +4%Four Magic · 0 maps
Dust2possible decider
33%50%
HAVU · 8 mapsedge Four Magic +17%Four Magic · 0 maps
CacheHAVU ban
33%67%
HAVU · 5 mapsedge Four Magic +34%Four Magic · 2 maps
AncientFour Magic pick
50%67%
HAVU · 4 mapsedge Four Magic +17%Four Magic · 2 maps
InfernoFour Magic ban
50%50%
HAVU · 4 mapsnearly even +0%Four Magic · 0 maps
AnubisHAVU ban
40%67%
HAVU · 1 mapedge Four Magic +27%Four Magic · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanHAVU remove Anubis
2. BanFour Magic remove Inferno
3. PickHAVU take Nuke
4. PickFour Magic take Ancient
5. BanFour Magic remove Mirage
6. BanHAVU remove Cache
DeciderDust2 (33% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction correct13:11
HAVU 51%Four Magic 49%
The model gave 51% on HAVU — the map was taken by HAVU.
Dust2prediction missed13:4
HAVU 36%Four Magic 64%
The model gave 64% on Four Magic — the map was taken by HAVU.
Model check result
Model favoriteHAVU · 66%
Series resultHAVU 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2