ESL Challenger League Season 52 Europe Cup 6 · BO3
result vs prediction
HAVU#116 in the world · win 2:0series probability
49%51%
probability at match start · final 2:0
mellren#118 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Miragemellren pick
50%82%
HAVU · 8 mapsedge mellren +32%mellren · 7 maps
Dust2HAVU ban
36%50%
HAVU · 7 mapsedge mellren +14%mellren · 6 maps
Nukemellren ban
71%50%
HAVU · 13 mapsedge HAVU +21%mellren · 0 maps
Ancientpossible decider
50%60%
HAVU · 4 mapsedge mellren +10%mellren · 6 maps
InfernoHAVU pick
57%56%
HAVU · 3 mapsnearly even +1%mellren · 5 maps
Cachemellren ban
33%50%
HAVU · 5 mapsedge mellren +17%mellren · 0 maps
AnubisHAVU ban
40%71%
HAVU · 1 mapedge mellren +31%mellren · 3 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanHAVU remove Anubis
2. Banmellren remove Nuke
3. PickHAVU take Inferno
4. Pickmellren take Mirage
5. Banmellren remove Cache
6. BanHAVU remove Dust2
DeciderAncient (50% / 60%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction missed13:4
HAVU 16%mellren 84%
The model gave 84% on mellren — the map was taken by HAVU.
Nukeprediction correct13:9
HAVU 73%mellren 27%
The model gave 73% on HAVU — the map was taken by HAVU.
Model check result
Model favoritemellren · 51%
Series resultHAVU 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 2