Tipsport Open Cup 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
HAVU#107 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
34%66%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Metizport#52 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
NukeHAVU pick
72%55%
HAVU · 14 mapsedge HAVU +17%Metizport · 16 maps
Miragepossible decider
57%57%
HAVU · 10 mapsnearly even +0%Metizport · 10 maps
InfernoMetizport pick
50%63%
HAVU · 4 mapsedge Metizport +13%Metizport · 12 maps
AncientHAVU ban
50%58%
HAVU · 4 mapsedge Metizport +8%Metizport · 8 maps
CacheMetizport ban
33%50%
HAVU · 5 mapsedge Metizport +17%Metizport · 6 maps
Dust2Metizport ban
38%50%
HAVU · 9 mapsedge Metizport +12%Metizport · 0 maps
AnubisHAVU ban
40%55%
HAVU · 1 mapedge Metizport +15%Metizport · 7 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanHAVU remove Anubis
2. BanMetizport remove Dust2
3. PickHAVU take Nuke
4. PickMetizport take Inferno
5. BanMetizport remove Cache
6. BanHAVU remove Ancient
DeciderMirage (57% / 57%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction correct13:8
HAVU 71%Metizport 29%
The model gave 71% on HAVU — the map was taken by HAVU.
Infernoprediction correct6:13
HAVU 35%Metizport 65%
The model gave 65% on Metizport — the map was taken by Metizport.
Mirageprediction missed10:13
HAVU 50%Metizport 50%
The model gave 50% on HAVU — the map was taken by Metizport.
Model check result
Model favoriteMetizport · 66%
Series resultMetizport 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 3