NODWIN Clutch Series 8 Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
HAVU#107 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
47%53%
probability at match start · final 0:2
RBLS#93 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
NukeHAVU pick
50%50%
HAVU · 2 mapsnearly even +0%RBLS · 4 maps
Dust2RBLS ban
33%40%
HAVU · 2 mapsedge RBLS +7%RBLS · 1 map
InfernoRBLS pick
50%67%
HAVU · 0 mapsedge RBLS +17%RBLS · 2 maps
OverpassHAVU ban
50%33%
HAVU · 0 mapsedge HAVU +17%RBLS · 2 maps
AncientRBLS ban
50%40%
HAVU · 0 mapsedge HAVU +10%RBLS · 1 map
MirageHAVU ban
40%50%
HAVU · 1 mapedge RBLS +10%RBLS · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanHAVU remove Mirage
2. BanRBLS remove Dust2
3. PickHAVU take Nuke
4. PickRBLS take Inferno
5. BanRBLS remove Ancient
6. BanHAVU remove Overpass
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction missed14:16
HAVU 53%RBLS 47%
The model gave 53% on HAVU — the map was taken by RBLS.
Dust2prediction correct9:13
HAVU 40%RBLS 60%
The model gave 60% on RBLS — the map was taken by RBLS.
Model check result
Model favoriteRBLS · 53%
Series resultRBLS 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2