European Pro League Series 7 Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
HEROIC Academy#100 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
63%37%
probability at match start · final 0:2
DONSTU#221 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2DONSTU pick
25%50%
HEROIC Academy · 4 mapsedge DONSTU +25%DONSTU · 2 maps
MirageDONSTU ban
50%50%
HEROIC Academy · 6 mapsnearly even +0%DONSTU · 0 maps
Ancientpossible decider
43%60%
HEROIC Academy · 3 mapsedge DONSTU +17%DONSTU · 1 map
AnubisHEROIC Academy ban
57%60%
HEROIC Academy · 3 mapsnearly even -3%DONSTU · 1 map
InfernoDONSTU ban
40%33%
HEROIC Academy · 1 mapedge HEROIC Academy +7%DONSTU · 2 maps
NukeHEROIC Academy ban
29%50%
HEROIC Academy · 3 mapsedge DONSTU +21%DONSTU · 0 maps
OverpassHEROIC Academy pick
50%50%
HEROIC Academy · 2 mapsnearly even +0%DONSTU · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanHEROIC Academy remove Nuke
2. BanDONSTU remove Mirage
3. PickHEROIC Academy take Overpass
4. PickDONSTU take Dust2
5. BanDONSTU remove Inferno
6. BanHEROIC Academy remove Anubis
DeciderAncient (43% / 60%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Infernoprediction missed11:13
HEROIC Academy 60%DONSTU 40%
The model gave 60% on HEROIC Academy — the map was taken by DONSTU.
Anubisprediction correct4:13
HEROIC Academy 44%DONSTU 56%
The model gave 56% on DONSTU — the map was taken by DONSTU.
Model check result
Model favoriteHEROIC Academy · 63%
Series resultDONSTU 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 2