BC Game Masters Europe Season 2 Series 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
HEROIC Academy#100 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
65%35%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Rune Eaters#114 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageRune Eaters pick
50%45%
HEROIC Academy · 6 mapsedge HEROIC Academy +5%Rune Eaters · 7 maps
AncientHEROIC Academy pick
43%56%
HEROIC Academy · 3 mapsedge Rune Eaters +13%Rune Eaters · 5 maps
Dust2HEROIC Academy ban
25%63%
HEROIC Academy · 4 mapsedge Rune Eaters +38%Rune Eaters · 4 maps
AnubisRune Eaters ban
50%50%
HEROIC Academy · 4 mapsnearly even +0%Rune Eaters · 0 maps
Infernopossible decider
33%50%
HEROIC Academy · 2 mapsedge Rune Eaters +17%Rune Eaters · 2 maps
NukeHEROIC Academy ban
29%40%
HEROIC Academy · 3 mapsedge Rune Eaters +11%Rune Eaters · 1 map
OverpassRune Eaters ban
50%40%
HEROIC Academy · 2 mapsedge HEROIC Academy +10%Rune Eaters · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanHEROIC Academy remove Dust2
2. BanRune Eaters remove Overpass
3. PickHEROIC Academy take Ancient
4. PickRune Eaters take Mirage
5. BanRune Eaters remove Anubis
6. BanHEROIC Academy remove Nuke
DeciderInferno (33% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction missed11:13
HEROIC Academy 52%Rune Eaters 48%
The model gave 52% on HEROIC Academy — the map was taken by Rune Eaters.
Ancientprediction correct7:13
HEROIC Academy 40%Rune Eaters 60%
The model gave 60% on Rune Eaters — the map was taken by Rune Eaters.
Model check result
Model favoriteHEROIC Academy · 65%
Series resultRune Eaters 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 2