Stake Pulse Beat II · BO3
result vs prediction
HEROIC#26 in the world · win 2:0series probability
59%41%
probability at match start · final 2:0
BBL#49 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
NukeBBL pick
62%57%
HEROIC · 9 mapsedge HEROIC +5%BBL · 10 maps
AncientHEROIC ban
61%50%
HEROIC · 14 mapsedge HEROIC +11%BBL · 4 maps
InfernoHEROIC pick
67%56%
HEROIC · 11 mapsedge HEROIC +11%BBL · 5 maps
Dust2BBL ban
68%50%
HEROIC · 15 mapsedge HEROIC +18%BBL · 0 maps
MirageBBL ban
64%50%
HEROIC · 10 mapsedge HEROIC +14%BBL · 4 maps
CacheHEROIC ban
54%38%
HEROIC · 9 mapsedge HEROIC +16%BBL · 4 maps
Defaultpossible decider
60%60%
HEROIC · 1 mapnearly even +0%BBL · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanHEROIC remove Cache
2. BanBBL remove Dust2
3. PickHEROIC take Inferno
4. PickBBL take Nuke
5. BanBBL remove Mirage
6. BanHEROIC remove Ancient
DeciderDefault (60% / 60%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction correct13:9
HEROIC 52%BBL 48%
The model gave 52% on HEROIC — the map was taken by HEROIC.
Infernoprediction correct13:5
HEROIC 64%BBL 36%
The model gave 64% on HEROIC — the map was taken by HEROIC.
Model check result
Model favoriteHEROIC · 59%
Series resultHEROIC 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 2