Thunderpick World Championship 2026 Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
HEROIC#25 in the world · win 2:0series probability
76%24%
probability at match start · final 2:0
BESTIA#89 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2HEROIC pick
69%72%
HEROIC · 12 mapsnearly even -3%BESTIA · 14 maps
InfernoBESTIA ban
67%44%
HEROIC · 11 mapsedge HEROIC +23%BESTIA · 5 maps
AncientHEROIC ban
64%56%
HEROIC · 10 mapsedge HEROIC +8%BESTIA · 5 maps
Nukepossible decider
58%67%
HEROIC · 8 mapsedge BESTIA +9%BESTIA · 5 maps
CacheHEROIC ban
40%40%
HEROIC · 6 mapsnearly even +0%BESTIA · 6 maps
MirageBESTIA ban
67%50%
HEROIC · 8 mapsedge HEROIC +17%BESTIA · 4 maps
DefaultBESTIA pick
60%50%
HEROIC · 1 mapedge HEROIC +10%BESTIA · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanHEROIC remove Cache
2. BanBESTIA remove Inferno
3. PickHEROIC take Dust2
4. PickBESTIA take Default
5. BanBESTIA remove Mirage
6. BanHEROIC remove Ancient
DeciderNuke (58% / 67%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Cacheprediction missed13:7
HEROIC 47%BESTIA 53%
The model gave 53% on BESTIA — the map was taken by HEROIC.
Ancientprediction correct13:4
HEROIC 62%BESTIA 38%
The model gave 62% on HEROIC — the map was taken by HEROIC.
Model check result
Model favoriteHEROIC · 76%
Series resultHEROIC 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2