?
arrow_backBack to match
IEM Beijing 2026 Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
HEROIC#25 in the world · loss 1:2
series probability
68%32%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Eternal Fire#47 in the world · win 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientEternal Fire pick
55%67%
HEROIC · 7 mapsedge Eternal Fire +12%Eternal Fire · 8 maps
Dust2possible decider
64%50%
HEROIC · 7 mapsedge HEROIC +14%Eternal Fire · 8 maps
InfernoHEROIC pick
69%50%
HEROIC · 9 mapsedge HEROIC +19%Eternal Fire · 6 maps
MirageEternal Fire ban
78%54%
HEROIC · 5 mapsedge HEROIC +24%Eternal Fire · 9 maps
CacheHEROIC ban
33%50%
HEROIC · 5 mapsedge Eternal Fire +17%Eternal Fire · 6 maps
NukeEternal Fire ban
50%33%
HEROIC · 8 mapsedge HEROIC +17%Eternal Fire · 2 maps
DefaultHEROIC ban
50%57%
HEROIC · 0 mapsedge Eternal Fire +7%Eternal Fire · 3 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanHEROIC remove Cache
2. BanEternal Fire remove Nuke
3. PickHEROIC take Inferno
4. PickEternal Fire take Ancient
5. BanEternal Fire remove Mirage
6. BanHEROIC remove Default
DeciderDust2 (64% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction missed13:6
HEROIC 35%Eternal Fire 65%
The model gave 65% on Eternal Fire — the map was taken by HEROIC.
Infernoprediction missed1:13
HEROIC 72%Eternal Fire 28%
The model gave 72% on HEROIC — the map was taken by Eternal Fire.
Mirageprediction missed9:13
HEROIC 75%Eternal Fire 25%
The model gave 75% on HEROIC — the map was taken by Eternal Fire.
Model check result
Model favoriteHEROIC · 68%
Series resultEternal Fire 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map0 of 3