Digital Crusade DraculaN Season 7 · BO3
result vs prediction
HEROIC#25 in the world · win 2:0series probability
84%16%
probability at match start · final 2:0
HYPERSPIRIT#151 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
CacheHYPERSPIRIT pick
61%63%
HEROIC · 14 mapsnearly even -2%HYPERSPIRIT · 15 maps
AncientHYPERSPIRIT ban
65%38%
HEROIC · 16 mapsedge HEROIC +27%HYPERSPIRIT · 12 maps
Dust2possible decider
57%46%
HEROIC · 17 mapsedge HEROIC +11%HYPERSPIRIT · 9 maps
InfernoHEROIC pick
68%50%
HEROIC · 15 mapsedge HEROIC +18%HYPERSPIRIT · 10 maps
MirageHEROIC ban
60%47%
HEROIC · 11 mapsedge HEROIC +13%HYPERSPIRIT · 11 maps
NukeHYPERSPIRIT ban
73%50%
HEROIC · 7 mapsedge HEROIC +23%HYPERSPIRIT · 0 maps
AnubisHEROIC ban
50%50%
HEROIC · 0 mapsnearly even +0%HYPERSPIRIT · 6 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanHEROIC remove Anubis
2. BanHYPERSPIRIT remove Nuke
3. PickHEROIC take Inferno
4. PickHYPERSPIRIT take Cache
5. BanHYPERSPIRIT remove Ancient
6. BanHEROIC remove Mirage
DeciderDust2 (57% / 46%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Cacheprediction missed13:7
HEROIC 45%HYPERSPIRIT 55%
The model gave 55% on HYPERSPIRIT — the map was taken by HEROIC.
Ancientprediction correct13:7
HEROIC 78%HYPERSPIRIT 22%
The model gave 78% on HEROIC — the map was taken by HEROIC.
Model check result
Model favoriteHEROIC · 84%
Series resultHEROIC 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2