Stake Ranked Episode 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
HEROIC#26 in the world · win 2:1series probability
72%28%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Phantom#88 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2HEROIC pick
56%61%
HEROIC · 5 mapsedge Phantom +5%Phantom · 14 maps
MirageHEROIC ban
25%41%
HEROIC · 4 mapsedge Phantom +16%Phantom · 13 maps
NukePhantom pick
44%60%
HEROIC · 5 mapsedge Phantom +16%Phantom · 11 maps
AncientPhantom ban
50%54%
HEROIC · 0 mapsnearly even -4%Phantom · 9 maps
Overpasspossible decider
60%67%
HEROIC · 1 mapedge Phantom +7%Phantom · 8 maps
InfernoPhantom ban
36%50%
HEROIC · 7 mapsedge Phantom +14%Phantom · 0 maps
AnubisHEROIC ban
50%67%
HEROIC · 0 mapsedge Phantom +17%Phantom · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanHEROIC remove Anubis
2. BanPhantom remove Inferno
3. PickHEROIC take Dust2
4. PickPhantom take Nuke
5. BanPhantom remove Ancient
6. BanHEROIC remove Mirage
DeciderOverpass (60% / 67%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction missed13:11
HEROIC 43%Phantom 57%
The model gave 57% on Phantom — the map was taken by HEROIC.
Nukeprediction correct14:16
HEROIC 38%Phantom 62%
The model gave 62% on Phantom — the map was taken by Phantom.
Dust2prediction missed13:11
HEROIC 44%Phantom 56%
The model gave 56% on Phantom — the map was taken by HEROIC.
Model check result
Model favoriteHEROIC · 72%
Series resultHEROIC 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 3