BLAST Bounty 2026 Season 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
HEROIC#26 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
37%63%
probability at match start · final 1:2
The MongolZ#16 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
InfernoThe MongolZ pick
46%67%
HEROIC · 9 mapsedge The MongolZ +21%The MongolZ · 5 maps
MirageThe MongolZ ban
45%36%
HEROIC · 7 mapsedge HEROIC +9%The MongolZ · 7 maps
Dust2possible decider
58%56%
HEROIC · 8 mapsnearly even +2%The MongolZ · 5 maps
NukeHEROIC ban
42%57%
HEROIC · 8 mapsedge The MongolZ +15%The MongolZ · 3 maps
AncientHEROIC pick
67%33%
HEROIC · 2 mapsedge HEROIC +34%The MongolZ · 5 maps
OverpassThe MongolZ ban
60%43%
HEROIC · 1 mapedge HEROIC +17%The MongolZ · 3 maps
CacheHEROIC ban
33%50%
HEROIC · 2 mapsedge The MongolZ +17%The MongolZ · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanHEROIC remove Cache
2. BanThe MongolZ remove Overpass
3. PickHEROIC take Ancient
4. PickThe MongolZ take Inferno
5. BanThe MongolZ remove Mirage
6. BanHEROIC remove Nuke
DeciderDust2 (58% / 56%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction missed13:5
HEROIC 38%The MongolZ 62%
The model gave 62% on The MongolZ — the map was taken by HEROIC.
Cacheprediction correct8:13
HEROIC 31%The MongolZ 69%
The model gave 69% on The MongolZ — the map was taken by The MongolZ.
Dust2prediction missed16:19
HEROIC 53%The MongolZ 47%
The model gave 53% on HEROIC — the map was taken by The MongolZ.
Model check result
Model favoriteThe MongolZ · 63%
Series resultThe MongolZ 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 3