Parken Challenger Championship Season 7 · BO3
result vs prediction
Honvéd#144 in the world · win 2:0series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 2:0
A Great Chaos#187 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageA Great Chaos pick
50%43%
Honvéd · 0 mapsedge Honvéd +7%A Great Chaos · 3 maps
NukeA Great Chaos ban
50%50%
Honvéd · 0 mapsnearly even +0%A Great Chaos · 2 maps
AncientA Great Chaos ban
50%40%
Honvéd · 0 mapsedge Honvéd +10%A Great Chaos · 1 map
AnubisHonvéd ban
50%60%
Honvéd · 0 mapsedge A Great Chaos +10%A Great Chaos · 1 map
Dust2Honvéd ban
50%60%
Honvéd · 0 mapsedge A Great Chaos +10%A Great Chaos · 1 map
OverpassHonvéd pick
50%40%
Honvéd · 0 mapsedge Honvéd +10%A Great Chaos · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanHonvéd remove Anubis
2. BanA Great Chaos remove Ancient
3. PickHonvéd take Overpass
4. PickA Great Chaos take Mirage
5. BanA Great Chaos remove Nuke
6. BanHonvéd remove Dust2
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction missed13:11
Honvéd 37%A Great Chaos 63%
The model gave 63% on A Great Chaos — the map was taken by Honvéd.
Mirageprediction correct13:8
Honvéd 60%A Great Chaos 40%
The model gave 60% on Honvéd — the map was taken by Honvéd.
Model check result
Model favoriteHonvéd · 50%
Series resultHonvéd 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2