NODWIN Clutch Series 12 Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
Honvéd#209 in the world · win 2:1series probability
47%53%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Azuolas#184 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Honvéd pick
55%40%
Honvéd · 36 mapsedge Honvéd +15%Azuolas · 1 map
MirageAzuolas pick
52%40%
Honvéd · 29 mapsedge Honvéd +12%Azuolas · 6 maps
Ancientpossible decider
50%57%
Honvéd · 14 mapsedge Azuolas +7%Azuolas · 3 maps
InfernoHonvéd ban
31%40%
Honvéd · 12 mapsedge Azuolas +9%Azuolas · 1 map
CacheAzuolas ban
40%50%
Honvéd · 11 mapsedge Azuolas +10%Azuolas · 0 maps
DefaultAzuolas ban
71%50%
Honvéd · 10 mapsedge Honvéd +21%Azuolas · 0 maps
NukeHonvéd ban
56%75%
Honvéd · 5 mapsedge Azuolas +19%Azuolas · 4 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanHonvéd remove Nuke
2. BanAzuolas remove Default
3. PickHonvéd take Dust2
4. PickAzuolas take Mirage
5. BanAzuolas remove Cache
6. BanHonvéd remove Inferno
DeciderAncient (50% / 57%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction missed4:13
Honvéd 59%Azuolas 41%
The model gave 59% on Honvéd — the map was taken by Azuolas.
Ancientprediction missed13:11
Honvéd 46%Azuolas 54%
The model gave 54% on Azuolas — the map was taken by Honvéd.
Infernoprediction missed13:6
Honvéd 41%Azuolas 59%
The model gave 59% on Azuolas — the map was taken by Honvéd.
Model check result
Model favoriteAzuolas · 53%
Series resultHonvéd 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map0 of 3