European Pro League Series 9 · BO3
result vs prediction
Honvéd#144 in the world · loss 0:1series probability
62%38%
probability at match start · final 0:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Bebop pick
54%50%
Honvéd · 37 mapsnearly even +4%Bebop · 16 maps
MirageHonvéd pick
50%20%
Honvéd · 30 mapsedge Honvéd +30%Bebop · 11 maps
InfernoBebop ban
32%33%
Honvéd · 15 mapsnearly even -1%Bebop · 5 maps
Defaultpossible decider
67%50%
Honvéd · 11 mapsedge Honvéd +17%Bebop · 6 maps
CacheHonvéd ban
40%44%
Honvéd · 11 mapsnearly even -4%Bebop · 5 maps
NukeHonvéd ban
56%53%
Honvéd · 5 mapsnearly even +3%Bebop · 11 maps
AncientBebop ban
53%50%
Honvéd · 15 mapsnearly even +3%Bebop · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanHonvéd remove Nuke
2. BanBebop remove Ancient
3. PickHonvéd take Mirage
4. PickBebop take Dust2
5. BanBebop remove Inferno
6. BanHonvéd remove Cache
DeciderDefault (67% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Defaultprediction missed0:1
Honvéd 67%Bebop 33%
The model gave 67% on Honvéd — the map was taken by Bebop.
Model check result
Model favoriteHonvéd · 62%
Series resultBebop 0:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map0 of 1