NODWIN Clutch Series 12 Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
Honvéd#138 in the world · win 1:0series probability
43%57%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Permitta#102 in the world · loss 0:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Permitta ban
55%25%
Honvéd · 34 mapsedge Honvéd +30%Permitta · 4 maps
Miragepossible decider
50%62%
Honvéd · 26 mapsedge Permitta +12%Permitta · 9 maps
AncientPermitta ban
50%36%
Honvéd · 14 mapsedge Honvéd +14%Permitta · 10 maps
NukePermitta pick
56%47%
Honvéd · 5 mapsedge Honvéd +9%Permitta · 13 maps
CacheHonvéd ban
36%70%
Honvéd · 10 mapsedge Permitta +34%Permitta · 6 maps
DefaultHonvéd pick
69%33%
Honvéd · 9 mapsedge Honvéd +36%Permitta · 2 maps
AnubisHonvéd ban
44%67%
Honvéd · 5 mapsedge Permitta +23%Permitta · 5 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanHonvéd remove Cache
2. BanPermitta remove Dust2
3. PickHonvéd take Default
4. PickPermitta take Nuke
5. BanPermitta remove Ancient
6. BanHonvéd remove Anubis
DeciderMirage (50% / 62%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Defaultprediction correct1:0
Honvéd 82%Permitta 18%
The model gave 82% on Honvéd — the map was taken by Honvéd.
Model check result
Model favoritePermitta · 57%
Series resultHonvéd 1:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 1