European Pro League Series 8 Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
Honvéd#144 in the world · win 2:0series probability
62%38%
probability at match start · final 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2possible decider
50%38%
Honvéd · 6 mapsedge Honvéd +12%Subtop De France · 4 maps
MirageSubtop De France ban
50%50%
Honvéd · 8 mapsnearly even +0%Subtop De France · 0 maps
InfernoSubtop De France pick
40%50%
Honvéd · 1 mapedge Subtop De France +10%Subtop De France · 4 maps
AncientSubtop De France ban
50%33%
Honvéd · 2 mapsedge Honvéd +17%Subtop De France · 2 maps
OverpassHonvéd ban
29%50%
Honvéd · 3 mapsedge Subtop De France +21%Subtop De France · 0 maps
AnubisHonvéd ban
60%60%
Honvéd · 1 mapnearly even +0%Subtop De France · 1 map
DefaultHonvéd pick
50%50%
Honvéd · 0 mapsnearly even +0%Subtop De France · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanHonvéd remove Anubis
2. BanSubtop De France remove Mirage
3. PickHonvéd take Default
4. PickSubtop De France take Inferno
5. BanSubtop De France remove Ancient
6. BanHonvéd remove Overpass
DeciderDust2 (50% / 38%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction correct13:8
Honvéd 69%Subtop De France 31%
The model gave 69% on Honvéd — the map was taken by Honvéd.
Dust2prediction correct13:7
Honvéd 60%Subtop De France 40%
The model gave 60% on Honvéd — the map was taken by Honvéd.
Model check result
Model favoriteHonvéd · 62%
Series resultHonvéd 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 2