Exort Fiesta Series 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Honvéd#209 in the world · win 2:1series probability
64%36%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Toobisie#174 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Honvéd pick
55%50%
Honvéd · 34 mapsedge Honvéd +5%Toobisie · 0 maps
MirageToobisie pick
50%60%
Honvéd · 26 mapsedge Toobisie +10%Toobisie · 1 map
AncientToobisie ban
50%50%
Honvéd · 14 mapsnearly even +0%Toobisie · 0 maps
CacheHonvéd ban
36%40%
Honvéd · 10 mapsnearly even -4%Toobisie · 1 map
DefaultToobisie ban
71%50%
Honvéd · 10 mapsedge Honvéd +21%Toobisie · 0 maps
InfernoHonvéd ban
31%50%
Honvéd · 9 mapsedge Toobisie +19%Toobisie · 0 maps
Anubispossible decider
44%40%
Honvéd · 5 mapsnearly even +4%Toobisie · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanHonvéd remove Inferno
2. BanToobisie remove Ancient
3. PickHonvéd take Dust2
4. PickToobisie take Mirage
5. BanToobisie remove Default
6. BanHonvéd remove Cache
DeciderAnubis (44% / 40%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Cacheprediction missed13:9
Honvéd 42%Toobisie 58%
The model gave 58% on Toobisie — the map was taken by Honvéd.
Dust2prediction missed10:13
Honvéd 58%Toobisie 42%
The model gave 58% on Honvéd — the map was taken by Toobisie.
Anubisprediction correct13:7
Honvéd 55%Toobisie 45%
The model gave 55% on Honvéd — the map was taken by Honvéd.
Model check result
Model favoriteHonvéd · 64%
Series resultHonvéd 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 3