NODWIN Clutch Series 10 · BO3
result vs prediction
Honvéd#144 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
67%33%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Vexar#141 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Honvéd pick
68%50%
Honvéd · 18 mapsedge Honvéd +18%Vexar · 2 maps
MirageVexar ban
52%29%
Honvéd · 17 mapsedge Honvéd +23%Vexar · 3 maps
AncientVexar pick
54%50%
Honvéd · 9 mapsnearly even +4%Vexar · 8 maps
Defaultpossible decider
57%60%
Honvéd · 3 mapsnearly even -3%Vexar · 6 maps
InfernoHonvéd ban
29%50%
Honvéd · 3 mapsedge Vexar +21%Vexar · 4 maps
AnubisVexar ban
71%60%
Honvéd · 3 mapsedge Honvéd +11%Vexar · 1 map
NukeHonvéd ban
57%60%
Honvéd · 3 mapsnearly even -3%Vexar · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanHonvéd remove Nuke
2. BanVexar remove Mirage
3. PickHonvéd take Dust2
4. PickVexar take Ancient
5. BanVexar remove Anubis
6. BanHonvéd remove Inferno
DeciderDefault (57% / 60%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction correct13:11
Honvéd 51%Vexar 49%
The model gave 51% on Honvéd — the map was taken by Honvéd.
Dust2prediction missed13:16
Honvéd 71%Vexar 29%
The model gave 71% on Honvéd — the map was taken by Vexar.
Mirageprediction missed5:13
Honvéd 73%Vexar 27%
The model gave 73% on Honvéd — the map was taken by Vexar.
Model check result
Model favoriteHonvéd · 67%
Series resultVexar 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 3