1win Private Club Season 2 Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
HOTU#41 in the world · win 2:0series probability
73%27%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Acend#125 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
CacheHOTU pick
62%30%
HOTU · 25 mapsedge HOTU +32%Acend · 6 maps
Dust2possible decider
65%46%
HOTU · 22 mapsedge HOTU +19%Acend · 9 maps
AnubisAcend ban
64%38%
HOTU · 18 mapsedge HOTU +26%Acend · 4 maps
AncientAcend pick
58%60%
HOTU · 15 mapsnearly even -2%Acend · 6 maps
MirageHOTU ban
65%44%
HOTU · 13 mapsedge HOTU +21%Acend · 5 maps
InfernoHOTU ban
40%63%
HOTU · 1 mapedge Acend +23%Acend · 12 maps
NukeAcend ban
63%50%
HOTU · 12 mapsedge HOTU +13%Acend · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanHOTU remove Inferno
2. BanAcend remove Nuke
3. PickHOTU take Cache
4. PickAcend take Ancient
5. BanAcend remove Anubis
6. BanHOTU remove Mirage
DeciderDust2 (65% / 46%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Cacheprediction correct13:10
HOTU 81%Acend 19%
The model gave 81% on HOTU — the map was taken by HOTU.
Mirageprediction correct13:10
HOTU 67%Acend 33%
The model gave 67% on HOTU — the map was taken by HOTU.
Model check result
Model favoriteHOTU · 73%
Series resultHOTU 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 2