StarLadder StarSeries Fall 2026 Europe Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
HOTU#41 in the world · win 2:0series probability
31%69%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Astralis#15 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2HOTU pick
61%38%
HOTU · 14 mapsedge HOTU +23%Astralis · 4 maps
NukeHOTU ban
73%36%
HOTU · 7 mapsedge HOTU +37%Astralis · 7 maps
AncientAstralis pick
58%67%
HOTU · 8 mapsedge Astralis +9%Astralis · 5 maps
MirageAstralis ban
57%57%
HOTU · 3 mapsnearly even +0%Astralis · 3 maps
OverpassHOTU ban
29%29%
HOTU · 3 mapsnearly even +0%Astralis · 3 maps
Cachepossible decider
63%60%
HOTU · 4 mapsnearly even +3%Astralis · 1 map
AnubisAstralis ban
67%50%
HOTU · 2 mapsedge HOTU +17%Astralis · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanHOTU remove Overpass
2. BanAstralis remove Anubis
3. PickHOTU take Dust2
4. PickAstralis take Ancient
5. BanAstralis remove Mirage
6. BanHOTU remove Nuke
DeciderCache (63% / 60%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Cacheprediction correct16:14
HOTU 56%Astralis 44%
The model gave 56% on HOTU — the map was taken by HOTU.
Ancientprediction missed16:13
HOTU 38%Astralis 62%
The model gave 62% on Astralis — the map was taken by HOTU.
Model check result
Model favoriteAstralis · 69%
Series resultHOTU 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 2