Stake Ranked Episode 4 Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
HOTU#27 in the world · win 2:0series probability
70%30%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Eternal Fire#47 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2possible decider
65%50%
HOTU · 19 mapsedge HOTU +15%Eternal Fire · 8 maps
CacheHOTU pick
62%55%
HOTU · 17 mapsedge HOTU +7%Eternal Fire · 7 maps
AncientEternal Fire pick
57%60%
HOTU · 10 mapsnearly even -3%Eternal Fire · 11 maps
MirageHOTU ban
50%57%
HOTU · 8 mapsedge Eternal Fire +7%Eternal Fire · 10 maps
AnubisEternal Fire ban
73%50%
HOTU · 11 mapsedge HOTU +23%Eternal Fire · 2 maps
NukeEternal Fire ban
69%33%
HOTU · 9 mapsedge HOTU +36%Eternal Fire · 2 maps
InfernoHOTU ban
50%55%
HOTU · 0 mapsedge Eternal Fire +5%Eternal Fire · 7 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanHOTU remove Inferno
2. BanEternal Fire remove Nuke
3. PickHOTU take Cache
4. PickEternal Fire take Ancient
5. BanEternal Fire remove Anubis
6. BanHOTU remove Mirage
DeciderDust2 (65% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction missed13:10
HOTU 40%Eternal Fire 60%
The model gave 60% on Eternal Fire — the map was taken by HOTU.
Cacheprediction correct16:13
HOTU 60%Eternal Fire 40%
The model gave 60% on HOTU — the map was taken by HOTU.
Model check result
Model favoriteHOTU · 70%
Series resultHOTU 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2