ESL Challenger League Season 52 Europe Cup 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
HOTU#41 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
58%42%
probability at match start · final 0:2
fnatic#36 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2HOTU pick
63%50%
HOTU · 12 mapsedge HOTU +13%fnatic · 12 maps
Anubisfnatic pick
67%56%
HOTU · 2 mapsedge HOTU +11%fnatic · 14 maps
Ancientfnatic ban
64%58%
HOTU · 7 mapsedge HOTU +6%fnatic · 8 maps
MirageHOTU ban
67%60%
HOTU · 2 mapsedge HOTU +7%fnatic · 11 maps
InfernoHOTU ban
50%77%
HOTU · 0 mapsedge fnatic +27%fnatic · 9 maps
Nukefnatic ban
73%50%
HOTU · 7 mapsedge HOTU +23%fnatic · 0 maps
Cachepossible decider
57%57%
HOTU · 3 mapsnearly even +0%fnatic · 3 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanHOTU remove Inferno
2. Banfnatic remove Nuke
3. PickHOTU take Dust2
4. Pickfnatic take Anubis
5. Banfnatic remove Ancient
6. BanHOTU remove Mirage
DeciderCache (57% / 57%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction missed0:13
HOTU 53%fnatic 47%
The model gave 53% on HOTU — the map was taken by fnatic.
Dust2prediction missed3:13
HOTU 65%fnatic 35%
The model gave 65% on HOTU — the map was taken by fnatic.
Model check result
Model favoriteHOTU · 58%
Series resultfnatic 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map0 of 2