1win Private Club Season 2 Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
HOTU#41 in the world · loss 1:2series probability
40%60%
probability at match start · final 1:2
fnatic#36 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
CacheHOTU pick
63%77%
HOTU · 26 mapsedge fnatic +14%fnatic · 18 maps
Ancientfnatic pick
58%68%
HOTU · 15 mapsedge fnatic +10%fnatic · 18 maps
Dust2possible decider
65%50%
HOTU · 22 mapsedge HOTU +15%fnatic · 10 maps
AnubisHOTU ban
64%73%
HOTU · 18 mapsedge fnatic +9%fnatic · 11 maps
Miragefnatic ban
67%40%
HOTU · 14 mapsedge HOTU +27%fnatic · 11 maps
InfernoHOTU ban
40%60%
HOTU · 1 mapedge fnatic +20%fnatic · 11 maps
Nukefnatic ban
63%50%
HOTU · 12 mapsedge HOTU +13%fnatic · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanHOTU remove Inferno
2. Banfnatic remove Nuke
3. PickHOTU take Cache
4. Pickfnatic take Ancient
5. Banfnatic remove Mirage
6. BanHOTU remove Anubis
DeciderDust2 (65% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction correct13:9
HOTU 68%fnatic 32%
The model gave 68% on HOTU — the map was taken by HOTU.
Anubisprediction correct4:13
HOTU 36%fnatic 64%
The model gave 64% on fnatic — the map was taken by fnatic.
Cacheprediction correct10:13
HOTU 34%fnatic 66%
The model gave 66% on fnatic — the map was taken by fnatic.
Model check result
Model favoritefnatic · 60%
Series resultfnatic 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map3 of 3