StarLadder StarSeries Fall 2026 Europe Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
HOTU#41 in the world · win 2:1series probability
39%61%
probability at match start · final 2:1
HEROIC#26 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2HEROIC pick
59%64%
HOTU · 13 mapsedge HEROIC +5%HEROIC · 7 maps
NukeHOTU pick
73%42%
HOTU · 7 mapsedge HOTU +31%HEROIC · 8 maps
Ancientpossible decider
58%60%
HOTU · 8 mapsnearly even -2%HEROIC · 1 map
InfernoHOTU ban
50%42%
HOTU · 0 mapsedge HOTU +8%HEROIC · 8 maps
MirageHEROIC ban
67%40%
HOTU · 2 mapsedge HOTU +27%HEROIC · 6 maps
CacheHEROIC ban
57%40%
HOTU · 3 mapsedge HOTU +17%HEROIC · 1 map
OverpassHOTU ban
29%60%
HOTU · 3 mapsedge HEROIC +31%HEROIC · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanHOTU remove Inferno
2. BanHEROIC remove Mirage
3. PickHOTU take Nuke
4. PickHEROIC take Dust2
5. BanHEROIC remove Cache
6. BanHOTU remove Overpass
DeciderAncient (58% / 60%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction missed10:13
HOTU 73%HEROIC 27%
The model gave 73% on HOTU — the map was taken by HEROIC.
Cacheprediction correct13:6
HOTU 69%HEROIC 31%
The model gave 69% on HOTU — the map was taken by HOTU.
Dust2prediction missed13:8
HOTU 45%HEROIC 55%
The model gave 55% on HEROIC — the map was taken by HOTU.
Model check result
Model favoriteHEROIC · 61%
Series resultHOTU 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 3