NODWIN Clutch Series 11 · BO3
result vs prediction
HOTU#41 in the world · win 1:0series probability
65%35%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Nuclear TigeRES#54 in the world · loss 0:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2HOTU pick
68%57%
HOTU · 18 mapsedge HOTU +11%Nuclear TigeRES · 10 maps
AnubisNuclear TigeRES pick
71%61%
HOTU · 10 mapsedge HOTU +10%Nuclear TigeRES · 14 maps
AncientHOTU ban
58%65%
HOTU · 8 mapsedge Nuclear TigeRES +7%Nuclear TigeRES · 13 maps
Cachepossible decider
61%71%
HOTU · 14 mapsedge Nuclear TigeRES +10%Nuclear TigeRES · 3 maps
NukeNuclear TigeRES ban
64%50%
HOTU · 7 mapsedge HOTU +14%Nuclear TigeRES · 10 maps
MirageNuclear TigeRES ban
55%33%
HOTU · 7 mapsedge HOTU +22%Nuclear TigeRES · 5 maps
InfernoHOTU ban
50%78%
HOTU · 0 mapsedge Nuclear TigeRES +28%Nuclear TigeRES · 5 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanHOTU remove Inferno
2. BanNuclear TigeRES remove Mirage
3. PickHOTU take Dust2
4. PickNuclear TigeRES take Anubis
5. BanNuclear TigeRES remove Nuke
6. BanHOTU remove Ancient
DeciderCache (61% / 71%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Defaultprediction correct1:0
HOTU 50%Nuclear TigeRES 50%
The model gave 50% on HOTU — the map was taken by HOTU.
Model check result
Model favoriteHOTU · 65%
Series resultHOTU 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 1