1xBet FRAG Season 17 · BO3
result vs prediction
HOTU#41 in the world · win 2:0series probability
85%15%
probability at match start · final 2:0
PCIFIC#135 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2PCIFIC ban
57%50%
HOTU · 3 mapsedge HOTU +7%PCIFIC · 0 maps
NukeHOTU pick
57%50%
HOTU · 3 mapsedge HOTU +7%PCIFIC · 0 maps
AncientHOTU ban
50%50%
HOTU · 2 mapsnearly even +0%PCIFIC · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanHOTU remove Ancient
2. BanPCIFIC remove Dust2
3. PickHOTU take Nuke
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Anubisprediction missed13:3
HOTU 47%PCIFIC 53%
The model gave 53% on PCIFIC — the map was taken by HOTU.
Dust2prediction correct13:8
HOTU 60%PCIFIC 40%
The model gave 60% on HOTU — the map was taken by HOTU.
Model check result
Model favoriteHOTU · 85%
Series resultHOTU 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2