GLuck Moscow Cyber Games 2026 Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
HOTU#41 in the world · win 2:0series probability
74%26%
probability at match start · final 2:0
SPARTA#96 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2SPARTA pick
65%68%
HOTU · 16 mapsnearly even -3%SPARTA · 37 maps
AncientSPARTA ban
62%44%
HOTU · 9 mapsedge HOTU +18%SPARTA · 21 map
MirageHOTU ban
55%56%
HOTU · 7 mapsnearly even -1%SPARTA · 23 maps
NukeHOTU pick
73%52%
HOTU · 7 mapsedge HOTU +21%SPARTA · 19 maps
Cachepossible decider
56%50%
HOTU · 12 mapsedge HOTU +6%SPARTA · 10 maps
InfernoHOTU ban
50%56%
HOTU · 0 mapsedge SPARTA +6%SPARTA · 12 maps
AnubisSPARTA ban
67%43%
HOTU · 8 mapsedge HOTU +24%SPARTA · 3 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanHOTU remove Inferno
2. BanSPARTA remove Anubis
3. PickHOTU take Nuke
4. PickSPARTA take Dust2
5. BanSPARTA remove Ancient
6. BanHOTU remove Mirage
DeciderCache (56% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction missed13:5
HOTU 43%SPARTA 57%
The model gave 57% on SPARTA — the map was taken by HOTU.
Cacheprediction correct13:8
HOTU 59%SPARTA 41%
The model gave 59% on HOTU — the map was taken by HOTU.
Model check result
Model favoriteHOTU · 74%
Series resultHOTU 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2