NODWIN Clutch Series 9 · BO3
result vs prediction
HOTU#41 in the world · loss 0:2series probability
62%38%
probability at match start · final 0:2
TDK#86 in the world · win 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2HOTU pick
62%75%
HOTU · 9 mapsedge TDK +13%TDK · 12 maps
AncientTDK ban
67%62%
HOTU · 5 mapsedge HOTU +5%TDK · 9 maps
OverpassHOTU ban
40%79%
HOTU · 1 mapedge TDK +39%TDK · 10 maps
MirageHOTU ban
50%50%
HOTU · 0 mapsnearly even +0%TDK · 8 maps
NukeTDK ban
73%40%
HOTU · 7 mapsedge HOTU +33%TDK · 1 map
Anubispossible decider
60%50%
HOTU · 1 mapedge HOTU +10%TDK · 4 maps
DefaultTDK pick
50%63%
HOTU · 0 mapsedge TDK +13%TDK · 4 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanHOTU remove Overpass
2. BanTDK remove Nuke
3. PickHOTU take Dust2
4. PickTDK take Default
5. BanTDK remove Ancient
6. BanHOTU remove Mirage
DeciderAnubis (60% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Overpassprediction correct13:16
HOTU 14%TDK 86%
The model gave 86% on TDK — the map was taken by TDK.
Ancientprediction missed8:13
HOTU 58%TDK 42%
The model gave 58% on HOTU — the map was taken by TDK.
Model check result
Model favoriteHOTU · 62%
Series resultTDK 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 2