NODWIN Clutch Series 11 · BO3
result vs prediction
HOTU#27 in the world · win 2:1series probability
76%24%
probability at match start · final 2:1
UPGRADE#101 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2HOTU pick
70%57%
HOTU · 16 mapsedge HOTU +13%UPGRADE · 3 maps
CacheUPGRADE ban
59%40%
HOTU · 13 mapsedge HOTU +19%UPGRADE · 1 map
AnubisUPGRADE pick
67%75%
HOTU · 8 mapsedge UPGRADE +8%UPGRADE · 4 maps
Ancientpossible decider
58%50%
HOTU · 8 mapsedge HOTU +8%UPGRADE · 2 maps
NukeUPGRADE ban
70%29%
HOTU · 6 mapsedge HOTU +41%UPGRADE · 3 maps
MirageHOTU ban
55%50%
HOTU · 7 mapsedge HOTU +5%UPGRADE · 0 maps
OverpassHOTU ban
33%50%
HOTU · 2 mapsedge UPGRADE +17%UPGRADE · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanHOTU remove Mirage
2. BanUPGRADE remove Cache
3. PickHOTU take Dust2
4. PickUPGRADE take Anubis
5. BanUPGRADE remove Nuke
6. BanHOTU remove Overpass
DeciderAncient (58% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Anubisprediction missed13:8
HOTU 37%UPGRADE 63%
The model gave 63% on UPGRADE — the map was taken by HOTU.
Nukeprediction missed15:19
HOTU 87%UPGRADE 13%
The model gave 87% on HOTU — the map was taken by UPGRADE.
Dust2prediction correct13:2
HOTU 64%UPGRADE 36%
The model gave 64% on HOTU — the map was taken by HOTU.
Model check result
Model favoriteHOTU · 76%
Series resultHOTU 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 3