ESL Challenger League Season 52 Europe Cup 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
HOTU#41 in the world · win 2:0series probability
83%17%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Vexar#141 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2Vexar pick
57%60%
HOTU · 10 mapsnearly even -3%Vexar · 1 map
Ancientpossible decider
60%57%
HOTU · 6 mapsnearly even +3%Vexar · 3 maps
NukeHOTU pick
73%60%
HOTU · 7 mapsedge HOTU +13%Vexar · 1 map
DefaultHOTU ban
50%63%
HOTU · 0 mapsedge Vexar +13%Vexar · 4 maps
OverpassVexar ban
29%50%
HOTU · 3 mapsedge Vexar +21%Vexar · 0 maps
InfernoHOTU ban
50%50%
HOTU · 0 mapsnearly even +0%Vexar · 2 maps
AnubisVexar ban
60%50%
HOTU · 1 mapedge HOTU +10%Vexar · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanHOTU remove Inferno
2. BanVexar remove Anubis
3. PickHOTU take Nuke
4. PickVexar take Dust2
5. BanVexar remove Overpass
6. BanHOTU remove Default
DeciderAncient (60% / 57%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction missed13:3
HOTU 50%Vexar 50%
The model gave 50% on Vexar — the map was taken by HOTU.
Mirageprediction correct13:0
HOTU 53%Vexar 47%
The model gave 53% on HOTU — the map was taken by HOTU.
Model check result
Model favoriteHOTU · 83%
Series resultHOTU 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2