Stake Pulse Beat I · BO3
result vs prediction
HOTU#41 in the world · win 2:0series probability
86%14%
probability at match start · final 2:0
XCLANloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2HOTU pick
63%50%
HOTU · 15 mapsedge HOTU +13%XCLAN · 0 maps
Ancientpossible decider
60%50%
HOTU · 11 mapsedge HOTU +10%XCLAN · 0 maps
NukeXCLAN ban
75%50%
HOTU · 8 mapsedge HOTU +25%XCLAN · 0 maps
CacheXCLAN pick
55%50%
HOTU · 7 mapsedge HOTU +5%XCLAN · 0 maps
MirageHOTU ban
56%50%
HOTU · 5 mapsedge HOTU +6%XCLAN · 0 maps
AnubisXCLAN ban
75%50%
HOTU · 4 mapsedge HOTU +25%XCLAN · 0 maps
OverpassHOTU ban
29%50%
HOTU · 3 mapsedge XCLAN +21%XCLAN · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanHOTU remove Overpass
2. BanXCLAN remove Nuke
3. PickHOTU take Dust2
4. PickXCLAN take Cache
5. BanXCLAN remove Anubis
6. BanHOTU remove Mirage
DeciderAncient (60% / 50%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Cacheprediction correct13:2
HOTU 52%XCLAN 48%
The model gave 52% on HOTU — the map was taken by HOTU.
Dust2prediction correct13:1
HOTU 66%XCLAN 34%
The model gave 66% on HOTU — the map was taken by HOTU.
Model check result
Model favoriteHOTU · 86%
Series resultHOTU 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map2 of 2