NODWIN Clutch Series 11 Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
HYPERSPIRIT#147 in the world · win 2:1series probability
58%42%
probability at match start · final 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2HYPERSPIRIT pick
62%71%
HYPERSPIRIT · 9 mapsedge Bebop +9%Bebop · 10 maps
MirageBebop pick
44%47%
HYPERSPIRIT · 5 mapsnearly even -3%Bebop · 13 maps
NukeHYPERSPIRIT ban
50%46%
HYPERSPIRIT · 0 mapsnearly even +4%Bebop · 9 maps
AnubisBebop ban
43%33%
HYPERSPIRIT · 3 mapsedge HYPERSPIRIT +10%Bebop · 5 maps
InfernoHYPERSPIRIT ban
38%57%
HYPERSPIRIT · 4 mapsedge Bebop +19%Bebop · 3 maps
Defaultpossible decider
57%43%
HYPERSPIRIT · 3 mapsedge HYPERSPIRIT +14%Bebop · 3 maps
AncientBebop ban
67%40%
HYPERSPIRIT · 2 mapsedge HYPERSPIRIT +27%Bebop · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanHYPERSPIRIT remove Nuke
2. BanBebop remove Ancient
3. PickHYPERSPIRIT take Dust2
4. PickBebop take Mirage
5. BanBebop remove Anubis
6. BanHYPERSPIRIT remove Inferno
DeciderDefault (57% / 43%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Cacheprediction missed5:13
HYPERSPIRIT 53%Bebop 47%
The model gave 53% on HYPERSPIRIT — the map was taken by Bebop.
Mirageprediction missed13:2
HYPERSPIRIT 44%Bebop 56%
The model gave 56% on Bebop — the map was taken by HYPERSPIRIT.
Infernoprediction missed13:6
HYPERSPIRIT 31%Bebop 69%
The model gave 69% on Bebop — the map was taken by HYPERSPIRIT.
Model check result
Model favoriteHYPERSPIRIT · 58%
Series resultHYPERSPIRIT 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map0 of 3