NODWIN Clutch Series 11 Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
HYPERSPIRIT#147 in the world · win 2:1series probability
49%51%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Permitta#103 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2HYPERSPIRIT pick
62%40%
HYPERSPIRIT · 9 mapsedge HYPERSPIRIT +22%Permitta · 1 map
Miragepossible decider
50%57%
HYPERSPIRIT · 6 mapsedge Permitta +7%Permitta · 3 maps
AncientPermitta ban
67%38%
HYPERSPIRIT · 2 mapsedge HYPERSPIRIT +29%Permitta · 4 maps
AnubisHYPERSPIRIT ban
43%50%
HYPERSPIRIT · 3 mapsedge Permitta +7%Permitta · 2 maps
CachePermitta pick
40%75%
HYPERSPIRIT · 1 mapedge Permitta +35%Permitta · 4 maps
InfernoPermitta ban
44%50%
HYPERSPIRIT · 5 mapsedge Permitta +6%Permitta · 0 maps
NukeHYPERSPIRIT ban
50%50%
HYPERSPIRIT · 0 mapsnearly even +0%Permitta · 4 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanHYPERSPIRIT remove Nuke
2. BanPermitta remove Inferno
3. PickHYPERSPIRIT take Dust2
4. PickPermitta take Cache
5. BanPermitta remove Ancient
6. BanHYPERSPIRIT remove Anubis
DeciderMirage (50% / 57%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Anubisprediction correct9:13
HYPERSPIRIT 40%Permitta 60%
The model gave 60% on Permitta — the map was taken by Permitta.
Dust2prediction correct13:11
HYPERSPIRIT 73%Permitta 27%
The model gave 73% on HYPERSPIRIT — the map was taken by HYPERSPIRIT.
Cacheprediction missed13:6
HYPERSPIRIT 18%Permitta 82%
The model gave 82% on Permitta — the map was taken by HYPERSPIRIT.
Model check result
Model favoritePermitta · 51%
Series resultHYPERSPIRIT 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map2 of 3