Radio Popular Roman Imperium Cup VIII · BO3
result vs prediction
Iberian Soul#57 in the world · win 2:0series probability
66%34%
probability at match start · final 2:0
6666#80 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Ancient6666 pick
46%64%
Iberian Soul · 9 mapsedge 6666 +18%6666 · 7 maps
Inferno6666 ban
63%17%
Iberian Soul · 4 mapsedge Iberian Soul +46%6666 · 8 maps
Miragepossible decider
50%57%
Iberian Soul · 4 mapsedge 6666 +7%6666 · 3 maps
AnubisIberian Soul ban
60%50%
Iberian Soul · 1 mapedge Iberian Soul +10%6666 · 4 maps
Cache6666 ban
38%50%
Iberian Soul · 4 mapsedge 6666 +12%6666 · 0 maps
NukeIberian Soul pick
50%33%
Iberian Soul · 2 mapsedge Iberian Soul +17%6666 · 2 maps
Dust2Iberian Soul ban
50%43%
Iberian Soul · 0 mapsedge Iberian Soul +7%6666 · 3 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanIberian Soul remove Dust2
2. Ban6666 remove Inferno
3. PickIberian Soul take Nuke
4. Pick6666 take Ancient
5. Ban6666 remove Cache
6. BanIberian Soul remove Anubis
DeciderMirage (50% / 57%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction missed13:9
Iberian Soul 30%6666 70%
The model gave 70% on 6666 — the map was taken by Iberian Soul.
Infernoprediction correct13:7
Iberian Soul 90%6666 10%
The model gave 90% on Iberian Soul — the map was taken by Iberian Soul.
Model check result
Model favoriteIberian Soul · 66%
Series resultIberian Soul 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2