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Digital Crusade DraculaN Season 7 · BO3
result vs prediction
Iberian Soul#57 in the world · loss 1:2
series probability
55%45%
probability at match start · final 1:2
BASEMENT BOYS#93 in the world · win 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Ancientpossible decider
50%44%
Iberian Soul · 14 mapsedge Iberian Soul +6%BASEMENT BOYS · 21 map
MirageBASEMENT BOYS pick
50%70%
Iberian Soul · 12 mapsedge BASEMENT BOYS +20%BASEMENT BOYS · 19 maps
CacheIberian Soul ban
38%44%
Iberian Soul · 9 mapsedge BASEMENT BOYS +6%BASEMENT BOYS · 14 maps
NukeIberian Soul pick
69%56%
Iberian Soul · 9 mapsedge Iberian Soul +13%BASEMENT BOYS · 14 maps
Dust2Iberian Soul ban
50%59%
Iberian Soul · 0 mapsedge BASEMENT BOYS +9%BASEMENT BOYS · 13 maps
InfernoBASEMENT BOYS ban
63%40%
Iberian Soul · 12 mapsedge Iberian Soul +23%BASEMENT BOYS · 1 map
AnubisBASEMENT BOYS ban
57%56%
Iberian Soul · 3 mapsnearly even +1%BASEMENT BOYS · 5 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanIberian Soul remove Dust2
2. BanBASEMENT BOYS remove Inferno
3. PickIberian Soul take Nuke
4. PickBASEMENT BOYS take Mirage
5. BanBASEMENT BOYS remove Anubis
6. BanIberian Soul remove Cache
DeciderAncient (50% / 44%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction correct13:16
Iberian Soul 28%BASEMENT BOYS 72%
The model gave 72% on BASEMENT BOYS — the map was taken by BASEMENT BOYS.
Nukeprediction correct13:10
Iberian Soul 67%BASEMENT BOYS 33%
The model gave 67% on Iberian Soul — the map was taken by Iberian Soul.
Ancientprediction missed2:13
Iberian Soul 56%BASEMENT BOYS 44%
The model gave 56% on Iberian Soul — the map was taken by BASEMENT BOYS.
Model check result
Model favoriteIberian Soul · 55%
Series resultBASEMENT BOYS 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map2 of 3