Stake Ranked Episode 2 Closed Qualifier · BO3
result vs prediction
illwillloss 1:2series probability
23%77%
probability at match start · final 1:2
100 Thieves#32 in the world · win 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Ancient100 Thieves pick
40%50%
illwill · 1 mapedge 100 Thieves +10%100 Thieves · 0 maps
Anubis100 Thieves ban
50%60%
illwill · 0 mapsedge 100 Thieves +10%100 Thieves · 1 map
Dust2100 Thieves ban
60%50%
illwill · 1 mapedge illwill +10%100 Thieves · 0 maps
Infernoillwill ban
50%60%
illwill · 0 mapsedge 100 Thieves +10%100 Thieves · 1 map
Mirageillwill pick
60%50%
illwill · 1 mapedge illwill +10%100 Thieves · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. Banillwill remove Inferno
2. Ban100 Thieves remove Dust2
3. Pickillwill take Mirage
4. Pick100 Thieves take Ancient
5. Ban100 Thieves remove Anubis
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Ancientprediction missed13:11
illwill 37%100 Thieves 63%
The model gave 63% on 100 Thieves — the map was taken by illwill.
Mirageprediction missed7:13
illwill 63%100 Thieves 37%
The model gave 63% on illwill — the map was taken by 100 Thieves.
Nukeprediction missed4:13
illwill 50%100 Thieves 50%
The model gave 50% on illwill — the map was taken by 100 Thieves.
Model check result
Model favorite100 Thieves · 77%
Series result100 Thieves 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map0 of 3