CCT 2026 Europe Series 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
illwillloss 1:2series probability
17%83%
probability at match start · final 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2illwill pick
45%64%
illwill · 7 mapsedge ex-RUBY +19%ex-RUBY · 24 maps
Nukeex-RUBY pick
33%71%
illwill · 2 mapsedge ex-RUBY +38%ex-RUBY · 20 maps
Mirageex-RUBY ban
45%41%
illwill · 7 mapsnearly even +4%ex-RUBY · 13 maps
Ancientex-RUBY ban
43%41%
illwill · 3 mapsnearly even +2%ex-RUBY · 13 maps
Overpassillwill ban
71%63%
illwill · 3 mapsedge illwill +8%ex-RUBY · 12 maps
Anubisillwill ban
33%60%
illwill · 2 mapsedge ex-RUBY +27%ex-RUBY · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. Banillwill remove Anubis
2. Banex-RUBY remove Mirage
3. Pickillwill take Dust2
4. Pickex-RUBY take Nuke
5. Banex-RUBY remove Ancient
6. Banillwill remove Overpass
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Nukeprediction correct13:16
illwill 15%ex-RUBY 85%
The model gave 85% on ex-RUBY — the map was taken by ex-RUBY.
Dust2prediction missed13:11
illwill 34%ex-RUBY 66%
The model gave 66% on ex-RUBY — the map was taken by illwill.
Mirageprediction missed17:19
illwill 54%ex-RUBY 46%
The model gave 54% on illwill — the map was taken by ex-RUBY.
Model check result
Model favoriteex-RUBY · 83%
Series resultex-RUBY 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 3