CCT 2026 Europe Series 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
illwillloss 1:2series probability
36%64%
probability at match start · final 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2illwill pick
57%57%
illwill · 3 mapsnearly even +0%ex-Zero Tenacity · 17 maps
Nukeex-Zero Tenacity pick
40%53%
illwill · 1 mapedge ex-Zero Tenacity +13%ex-Zero Tenacity · 15 maps
Miragepossible decider
43%42%
illwill · 3 mapsnearly even +1%ex-Zero Tenacity · 8 maps
Anubisex-Zero Tenacity ban
40%36%
illwill · 1 mapnearly even +4%ex-Zero Tenacity · 7 maps
Infernoillwill ban
50%42%
illwill · 0 mapsedge illwill +8%ex-Zero Tenacity · 8 maps
Overpassillwill ban
50%38%
illwill · 0 mapsedge illwill +12%ex-Zero Tenacity · 4 maps
Ancientex-Zero Tenacity ban
43%50%
illwill · 3 mapsedge ex-Zero Tenacity +7%ex-Zero Tenacity · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. Banillwill remove Overpass
2. Banex-Zero Tenacity remove Ancient
3. Pickillwill take Dust2
4. Pickex-Zero Tenacity take Nuke
5. Banex-Zero Tenacity remove Anubis
6. Banillwill remove Inferno
DeciderMirage (43% / 42%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Overpassprediction correct13:7
illwill 65%ex-Zero Tenacity 35%
The model gave 65% on illwill — the map was taken by illwill.
Mirageprediction correct10:13
illwill 48%ex-Zero Tenacity 52%
The model gave 52% on ex-Zero Tenacity — the map was taken by ex-Zero Tenacity.
Nukeprediction correct9:13
illwill 38%ex-Zero Tenacity 62%
The model gave 63% on ex-Zero Tenacity — the map was taken by ex-Zero Tenacity.
Model check result
Model favoriteex-Zero Tenacity · 64%
Series resultex-Zero Tenacity 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map3 of 3