European Pro League Series 8 · BO3
result vs prediction
illwillloss 0:1series probability
45%55%
probability at match start · final 0:1
WBT#108 in the world · win 1:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2illwill pick
54%60%
illwill · 9 mapsedge WBT +6%WBT · 6 maps
MirageWBT pick
38%56%
illwill · 9 mapsedge WBT +18%WBT · 5 maps
Ancientillwill ban
43%50%
illwill · 3 mapsedge WBT +7%WBT · 4 maps
AnubisWBT ban
33%43%
illwill · 2 mapsedge WBT +10%WBT · 3 maps
NukeWBT ban
25%40%
illwill · 4 mapsedge WBT +15%WBT · 1 map
Overpassillwill ban
71%67%
illwill · 3 mapsnearly even +4%WBT · 2 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. Banillwill remove Ancient
2. BanWBT remove Anubis
3. Pickillwill take Dust2
4. PickWBT take Mirage
5. BanWBT remove Nuke
6. Banillwill remove Overpass
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Defaultprediction missed0:1
illwill 50%WBT 50%
The model gave 50% on illwill — the map was taken by WBT.
Model check result
Model favoriteWBT · 55%
Series resultWBT 0:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map0 of 1