Exort Fiesta Series 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Illyrians#144 in the world · win 2:1series probability
44%56%
probability at match start · final 2:1
UNiTY#102 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientUNiTY pick
67%67%
Illyrians · 2 mapsnearly even +0%UNiTY · 17 maps
MirageIllyrians pick
56%50%
Illyrians · 5 mapsedge Illyrians +6%UNiTY · 14 maps
Dust2UNiTY ban
38%53%
Illyrians · 4 mapsedge UNiTY +15%UNiTY · 13 maps
Infernopossible decider
60%56%
Illyrians · 1 mapnearly even +4%UNiTY · 14 maps
AnubisUNiTY ban
67%67%
Illyrians · 2 mapsnearly even +0%UNiTY · 8 maps
CacheIllyrians ban
50%46%
Illyrians · 0 mapsnearly even +4%UNiTY · 9 maps
DefaultIllyrians ban
40%57%
Illyrians · 1 mapedge UNiTY +17%UNiTY · 3 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanIllyrians remove Cache
2. BanUNiTY remove Dust2
3. PickIllyrians take Mirage
4. PickUNiTY take Ancient
5. BanUNiTY remove Anubis
6. BanIllyrians remove Default
DeciderInferno (60% / 56%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Infernoprediction missed1:13
Illyrians 52%UNiTY 48%
The model gave 52% on Illyrians — the map was taken by UNiTY.
Dust2prediction missed13:7
Illyrians 38%UNiTY 62%
The model gave 62% on UNiTY — the map was taken by Illyrians.
Anubisprediction correct13:9
Illyrians 50%UNiTY 50%
The model gave 50% on Illyrians — the map was taken by Illyrians.
Model check result
Model favoriteUNiTY · 56%
Series resultIllyrians 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 3