European Pro League Cup 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
Imperial Academy#224 in the world · win 2:1series probability
23%77%
probability at match start · final 2:1
AaB#69 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
AncientImperial Academy ban
50%56%
Imperial Academy · 0 mapsedge AaB +6%AaB · 5 maps
OverpassAaB pick
50%43%
Imperial Academy · 0 mapsedge Imperial Academy +7%AaB · 3 maps
AnubisAaB ban
50%50%
Imperial Academy · 0 mapsnearly even +0%AaB · 2 maps
NukeAaB ban
50%33%
Imperial Academy · 0 mapsedge Imperial Academy +17%AaB · 2 maps
DefaultImperial Academy pick
60%50%
Imperial Academy · 1 mapedge Imperial Academy +10%AaB · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanImperial Academy remove Ancient
2. BanAaB remove Nuke
3. PickImperial Academy take Default
4. PickAaB take Overpass
5. BanAaB remove Anubis
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Overpassprediction missed8:13
Imperial Academy 54%AaB 46%
The model gave 54% on Imperial Academy — the map was taken by AaB.
Mirageprediction correct13:9
Imperial Academy 53%AaB 47%
The model gave 53% on Imperial Academy — the map was taken by Imperial Academy.
Ancientprediction missed16:12
Imperial Academy 44%AaB 56%
The model gave 56% on AaB — the map was taken by Imperial Academy.
Model check result
Model favoriteAaB · 77%
Series resultImperial Academy 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by map1 of 3