BetBoom Storm Season 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
Imperial#51 in the world · win 2:1series probability
79%21%
probability at match start · final 2:1
ALKA#129 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
InfernoALKA ban
63%56%
Imperial · 15 mapsedge Imperial +7%ALKA · 5 maps
MirageImperial pick
61%44%
Imperial · 14 mapsedge Imperial +17%ALKA · 5 maps
Dust2ALKA pick
46%69%
Imperial · 9 mapsedge ALKA +23%ALKA · 9 maps
Nukepossible decider
71%55%
Imperial · 10 mapsedge Imperial +16%ALKA · 7 maps
AncientImperial ban
50%58%
Imperial · 0 mapsedge ALKA +8%ALKA · 8 maps
CacheImperial ban
56%50%
Imperial · 5 mapsedge Imperial +6%ALKA · 2 maps
AnubisALKA ban
43%40%
Imperial · 3 mapsnearly even +3%ALKA · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanImperial remove Ancient
2. BanALKA remove Anubis
3. PickImperial take Mirage
4. PickALKA take Dust2
5. BanALKA remove Inferno
6. BanImperial remove Cache
DeciderNuke (71% / 55%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction missed13:9
Imperial 25%ALKA 75%
The model gave 75% on ALKA — the map was taken by Imperial.
Mirageprediction missed2:13
Imperial 69%ALKA 31%
The model gave 69% on Imperial — the map was taken by ALKA.
Nukeprediction correct13:9
Imperial 68%ALKA 32%
The model gave 68% on Imperial — the map was taken by Imperial.
Model check result
Model favoriteImperial · 79%
Series resultImperial 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 3