PGL Masters Bucharest 2026 South America Open Qualifier 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
Imperial#61 in the world · win 2:0series probability
79%21%
probability at match start · final 2:0
ALKA#113 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Dust2ALKA pick
64%64%
Imperial · 10 mapsnearly even +0%ALKA · 18 maps
MirageImperial pick
68%54%
Imperial · 18 mapsedge Imperial +14%ALKA · 9 maps
Infernopossible decider
67%69%
Imperial · 17 mapsnearly even -2%ALKA · 9 maps
NukeALKA ban
72%55%
Imperial · 14 mapsedge Imperial +17%ALKA · 7 maps
CacheImperial ban
62%50%
Imperial · 9 mapsedge Imperial +12%ALKA · 6 maps
AncientImperial ban
50%50%
Imperial · 0 mapsnearly even +0%ALKA · 14 maps
AnubisALKA ban
56%50%
Imperial · 5 mapsedge Imperial +6%ALKA · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanImperial remove Ancient
2. BanALKA remove Anubis
3. PickImperial take Mirage
4. PickALKA take Dust2
5. BanALKA remove Nuke
6. BanImperial remove Cache
DeciderInferno (67% / 69%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Mirageprediction correct13:7
Imperial 67%ALKA 33%
The model gave 67% on Imperial — the map was taken by Imperial.
Infernoprediction missed13:2
Imperial 44%ALKA 56%
The model gave 56% on ALKA — the map was taken by Imperial.
Model check result
Model favoriteImperial · 79%
Series resultImperial 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2