ESL Challenger League Season 52 South America Cup 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
Imperial#51 in the world · win 2:1series probability
67%33%
probability at match start · final 2:1
ODDIK#140 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
MirageImperial pick
67%67%
Imperial · 17 mapsnearly even +0%ODDIK · 5 maps
NukeODDIK ban
72%71%
Imperial · 14 mapsnearly even +1%ODDIK · 3 maps
InfernoODDIK ban
63%50%
Imperial · 15 mapsedge Imperial +13%ODDIK · 0 maps
Dust2ODDIK pick
55%55%
Imperial · 7 mapsnearly even +0%ODDIK · 7 maps
Cachepossible decider
60%57%
Imperial · 6 mapsnearly even +3%ODDIK · 3 maps
AnubisImperial ban
57%67%
Imperial · 3 mapsedge ODDIK +10%ODDIK · 2 maps
AncientImperial ban
50%50%
Imperial · 0 mapsnearly even +0%ODDIK · 4 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanImperial remove Ancient
2. BanODDIK remove Inferno
3. PickImperial take Mirage
4. PickODDIK take Dust2
5. BanODDIK remove Nuke
6. BanImperial remove Anubis
DeciderCache (60% / 57%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction missed13:5
Imperial 47%ODDIK 53%
The model gave 53% on ODDIK — the map was taken by Imperial.
Mirageprediction missed9:13
Imperial 53%ODDIK 47%
The model gave 53% on Imperial — the map was taken by ODDIK.
Cacheprediction correct13:3
Imperial 53%ODDIK 47%
The model gave 53% on Imperial — the map was taken by Imperial.
Model check result
Model favoriteImperial · 67%
Series resultImperial 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 3