ESL Challenger League Season 52 South America Cup 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
Imperial#51 in the world · win 2:1series probability
59%41%
probability at match start · final 2:1
ShindeN#77 in the world · loss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
InfernoShindeN pick
65%62%
Imperial · 16 mapsnearly even +3%ShindeN · 9 maps
MirageImperial pick
67%50%
Imperial · 17 mapsedge Imperial +17%ShindeN · 4 maps
NukeShindeN ban
71%40%
Imperial · 13 mapsedge Imperial +31%ShindeN · 6 maps
Dust2Imperial ban
58%67%
Imperial · 8 mapsedge ShindeN +9%ShindeN · 5 maps
Cachepossible decider
67%38%
Imperial · 8 mapsedge Imperial +29%ShindeN · 4 maps
AncientImperial ban
50%60%
Imperial · 0 mapsedge ShindeN +10%ShindeN · 6 maps
AnubisShindeN ban
50%50%
Imperial · 4 mapsnearly even +0%ShindeN · 0 maps
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanImperial remove Ancient
2. BanShindeN remove Anubis
3. PickImperial take Mirage
4. PickShindeN take Inferno
5. BanShindeN remove Nuke
6. BanImperial remove Dust2
DeciderCache (67% / 38%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction missed13:9
Imperial 38%ShindeN 62%
The model gave 62% on ShindeN — the map was taken by Imperial.
Cacheprediction missed16:19
Imperial 79%ShindeN 21%
The model gave 79% on Imperial — the map was taken by ShindeN.
Infernoprediction correct19:16
Imperial 54%ShindeN 46%
The model gave 54% on Imperial — the map was taken by Imperial.
Model check result
Model favoriteImperial · 59%
Series resultImperial 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 3