FRAG University 2026 · BO3
result vs prediction
Imperial#51 in the world · win 2:0series probability
60%40%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Without a Roof#81 in the world · loss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
InfernoWithout a Roof pick
64%71%
Imperial · 24 mapsedge Without a Roof +7%Without a Roof · 17 maps
MirageImperial pick
73%65%
Imperial · 22 mapsedge Imperial +8%Without a Roof · 19 maps
Dust2Imperial ban
56%56%
Imperial · 14 mapsnearly even +0%Without a Roof · 12 maps
NukeWithout a Roof ban
68%58%
Imperial · 18 mapsedge Imperial +10%Without a Roof · 8 maps
Cachepossible decider
61%57%
Imperial · 14 mapsnearly even +4%Without a Roof · 3 maps
AncientImperial ban
50%56%
Imperial · 0 mapsedge Without a Roof +6%Without a Roof · 14 maps
AnubisWithout a Roof ban
58%60%
Imperial · 8 mapsnearly even -2%Without a Roof · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanImperial remove Ancient
2. BanWithout a Roof remove Anubis
3. PickImperial take Mirage
4. PickWithout a Roof take Inferno
5. BanWithout a Roof remove Nuke
6. BanImperial remove Dust2
DeciderCache (61% / 57%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Dust2prediction missed13:4
Imperial 46%Without a Roof 54%
The model gave 54% on Without a Roof — the map was taken by Imperial.
Nukeprediction correct13:9
Imperial 63%Without a Roof 37%
The model gave 63% on Imperial — the map was taken by Imperial.
Model check result
Model favoriteImperial · 60%
Series resultImperial 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 2