ESL Challenger League Season 52 North America Cup 1 · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
43%57%
probability at match start · final 0:1
Chicken Coop#151 in the world · win 1:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: map winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Map veto prediction
For each map — both teams' winrate over 3 months. The model guesses who bans it and who keeps it: teams remove maps where they are weaker and pull toward their strong ones.
Infernopossible decider
50%58%
Incognito · 0 mapsedge Chicken Coop +8%Chicken Coop · 8 maps
Dust2Incognito pick
50%50%
Incognito · 0 mapsnearly even +0%Chicken Coop · 6 maps
OverpassChicken Coop pick
50%67%
Incognito · 0 mapsedge Chicken Coop +17%Chicken Coop · 5 maps
AncientIncognito ban
50%75%
Incognito · 0 mapsedge Chicken Coop +25%Chicken Coop · 4 maps
NukeChicken Coop ban
50%50%
Incognito · 0 mapsnearly even +0%Chicken Coop · 4 maps
AnubisChicken Coop ban
50%40%
Incognito · 0 mapsedge Incognito +10%Chicken Coop · 1 map
DefaultIncognito ban
50%60%
Incognito · 0 mapsedge Chicken Coop +10%Chicken Coop · 1 map
Most likely veto scenario
1. BanIncognito remove Ancient
2. BanChicken Coop remove Anubis
3. PickIncognito take Dust2
4. PickChicken Coop take Overpass
5. BanChicken Coop remove Nuke
6. BanIncognito remove Default
DeciderInferno (50% / 58%)
Prediction by map vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start (map winrate over the 3 months before it). We compare against the actual result of each map.
Defaultprediction correct0:1
Incognito 40%Chicken Coop 60%
The model gave 60% on Chicken Coop — the map was taken by Chicken Coop.
Model check result
Model favoriteChicken Coop · 57%
Series resultChicken Coop 0:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by map1 of 1